GAME MGMT
What's my call · 4th down
college win-probability · 946,889 plays
Win-probability model ported from the GameDayDecisions engine and recalibrated on college play-by-play (cfbfastR, 2021-24). Conversion, field-goal, and punt rates are measured from the college game, so the calls reflect college kickers and college 4th-down math, not the NFL. Adjust the situation and the call updates live.
WK 1vs HAMPTONSEP 5 · SECU STADIUMforecast opens ~16 days outno market line posted · as of 2026-06-09
Team-strength neutral: the model carries no opponent rating. Kicker and 4th-down-offense tiers shift the measured FG / conversion rates — staff judgment, applied openly.
FIELD GOAL
win probability 36.1%
+2.4 pts vs next best
Convert 4th & 2 at 57.7% (n=2936) · 55-yd FG makes 47.7% (n=266) · punt nets 28 yds · GO break-even: convert ≥ 71.1%
