Week 5 in Lincoln (homecoming, kick no later than 4 p.m.): by then the tape will show whether Aurich's split-safety install holds up — attack the all-portal LB level with run fits and play-action, and force Colandrea to win from the pocket rather than off schedule. Field position will be a grind; their K/P duo was elite in 2025, so plan for long fields.
Whole identity pivots from Raiola to Colandrea's mobility and experience; Holgorsen says he'll call it fearlessly once he learns what the roster does best. WR room (Barney, Hunter, Gilmer) is the strength; OL was rebuilt through the portal around Pritchett at LT. Backfield is young and unproven — staff passed on a portal RB.
Butler was fired after giving up 77 points over the final two regular-season games; Aurich arrives off SDSU's No. 5 scoring defense (12.6 ppg) and converts the front to four-down. DL retention (Van Poppel, Nwaneri, Lenhardt) is the core, but the entire LB level walked (McCullough, Watson-Trent, Javin Wright graduated) and was rebuilt through the portal — new scheme plus new second level is the unit's risk. Camp availability: LB Jacob Bower (knee) opened camp out, freshman WR Larry Miles is out six to eight weeks after foot surgery, and RB Mekhi Nelson — arrested June 29 on a felony battery charge Florida prosecutors declined to file — was cleared for camp with no program discipline.
Rhule signed a two-year extension through 2032 ($87M total, ~$63M buyout) amid Penn State speculation, then watched 2025 end 7-6 with three straight losses. Year 4 is 5-7 / 7-6 / 7-6 so far — extension or not, this is a prove-it season and he reset half the staff to force it.
16-man portal class graded around B+ by beat coverage — heavy on trenches and linebacker, deliberately older and more experienced. Losing Raiola is the headline subtraction, but the staff treated it as a pivot, not a crisis; the misses were running back and one more DL body. RB Tikey Hayes (ex-Penn State, via Iowa Western CC) was added ahead of camp (Jul 14).
Both specialists return: Cunanan (16-of-19 FG, 61-of-64 total kicks in 2025) and punter Wilson (opponents held to 23 punt-return yards, fewest by a Nebraska punter in 30 years). Ekeler left for USC; Maher promoted to coordinator with Humphrey as co-coordinator, so continuity in the unit that was a 2025 strength.
As of Aug 17: FanDuel's 5.5 win total is the lowest of the Rhule era, and the media poll has them 11th of 18. Our Oct 3 trip is their homecoming; no line is posted and kickoff is unset.