Regular-season finale, Nov 28 in College Park — eleven games of Mouser tape by then, and the Iowa State carryover makes the self-scout cheap. Plan starts with early-down run fits versus 12/13 personnel and bracketing Brahmer; force Becht into long third downs and the receiver room is the weak link.
Iowa State's offense relocated nearly intact: QB, OC, OL coach, lead back, and the top two TEs all came together, so install friction should be minimal. Identity is run-first out of multi-TE sets with Brahmer the featured matchup piece. Becht's shoulder is the only health flag; receiver top-end speed is the thinnest spot on paper.
Near-total rebuild: 19 of the 40 portal adds are defenders and only about three returning Nittany Lions project to start — and that assumes Rojas beats the ACL clock by September. Corner room (Collins, Tracy, Dixson plus Cooper) is the most continuous unit. Front six is transfer-built and unproven together; early-season run fits are the obvious stress point.
Campbell brought the Iowa State operation east nearly whole — staff continuity with his own system is the bet, and the schedule (no Ohio State, Indiana, or Oregon) gives Year 1 room to breathe. Lynn is the one outside hire at coordinator and the early spring reviews were strong.
A program transplant, not a retool: 40+ out, 37 in, 22 straight from Ames. Continuity inside the incoming group raises the floor, but elite young talent (Coleman) and most of the 2025 secondary walked.
Barker back at kicker (18/19 in 2025; 33/37 career, never missed inside 40) and Lustig retained as ST coordinator after his unit finished No. 1 in ESPN FPI ST efficiency. Punter is new — Nwosu gone to the NFL; Mississippi State transfer Tiyce battling freshman Tenbrock.
Over 9.5 at +110 / under -134 — market gives Campbell roughly a coin flip at 10 wins despite topping nine only once in 14 prior seasons. Media framing: playoff-capable in Year 1 because the schedule misses Ohio State, Indiana, and Oregon, but expectations tempered versus the 2025 preseason hype.